Victoria’s 2020 budget announcement included a $335m program to replace 250,000 old heaters, including gas fired heaters. Calculations in the attached briefing paper show this would decrease winter gas consumption by 33-34 TJ per day, which is enough to avoid the most common winter gas shortfall projected by AEMO (the 1-in-2 year peak event shortfall of 27 TJ per day).
This research shows a single new Victorian government program will significantly reduce gas demand during winter. When combined with other Victorian energy efficiency programs, the reduction in gas demand calls into question the need for new supply projects such as AGL’s proposed Crib Point gas import terminal in Westernport Bay.