There are currently three gas import terminals proposed for Victoria. The main justification for these is a projected gas shortfall in winter 2024, based largely on forecasts from AEMO’s reports –the Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) and the Victorian Gas Planning Report (VGPR).
However, the method AEMO uses to forecast the gas market can underestimate future policies and programs that will reduce gas demand. While gas supply is considered at a range of certainty levels, gas demand measures are only considered when they are highly certain.
This briefing paper fills this gap in AEMO’s forecasting by summarising research into gas demand reduction measures for Victoria.