Blog | 16th Jan, 2025

Don't get so hung up on gas

Everyone has an opinion about gas at the moment. Especially on whether we have enough to keep the water hot and the factories running.

The cold hard truth is that we don’t. At least, not here in Victoria.

The Australian Energy Market Operator projects that, without action, there will be small “seasonal supply gaps” as soon as 2026, and more serious ongoing shortages from 2028.

We can get more gas. But it will cost an absolute mozza. Which is why the government wants to shift more Victorian homes across to all-electric.

Neither wishful thinking nor empty sloganeering can change Victoria’s geology. Our once plentiful reserves in Bass Strait are running out.

There are small pockets of gas elsewhere (including, controversially, under the 12 Apostles), but nothing at a meaningful scale.

Unless of course you want to overturn Victoria’s ban on fracking and unconventional gas – which would be political suicide, especially in regional electorates held by the National Party.

This leaves importing gas from overseas by ship or from interstate by pipeline. Either option would expose Victoria to international markets and ever-increasing prices.

So those criticising the Allan government’s proposal need to explain to the Victorian public which option they prefer, and what it would cost us.

What they don’t want to admit is that they’re actually arguing to keep gas prices high, by ensuring there’s stiff competition for ever dwindling local supply.

It’s not just households that will suffer. The more homes competing for scarce and expensive imported gas, the higher the price business will have to pay.

Some, like the state Opposition, argue that regardless of cost it should be a matter of consumer choice. I’d argue it’s a matter of consumer protection.

The government’s plan wouldn’t require anyone to go out tomorrow and buy a new heater or hot water service. But it would mean that when your current one gives up the ghost, the plumber has to offer you the latest, most efficient and cost-effective technology.

In most circumstances that is actually an electric one. In some situations it will still be gas. Either way, the hot water will keep flowing, the chilly winter nights will be kept at bay, and your next energy bill will be lower than it would otherwise have been.

Gradually phasing out gas appliances is good for business, and it’s good for households. It will keep energy bills lower, and it will leave more gas for those who can’t so easily switch, like Victoria’s important manufacturing sector.

It’s a no brainer really. We’re running out of gas but the solutions are right in front of us, if we only have the foresight to grab them.

Jono La Nauze is CEO of Environment Victoria. An edited version of this op-ed ran in the Herald Sun on December 28th