ABC
As floods batter some parts of Australia, others are experiencing their worst drought on record. The two extremes may give a glimpse of our future climate.A record dry spell for Southern Australia
Since February 2024 Southern Australia has been experiencing severe drought, with parts of Victoria receiving some of the lowest rainfall on record.
The areas impacted by this unnatural dry spell aligns exactly with what scientists predicted would happen as global temperatures rise as a consequence of burning coal, oil and gas, which pumps our atmosphere with increasing amounts of carbon dioxide.
Climate Models Predicted This Pattern
As you can see by comparing the images above, the regions currently experiencing drought match almost exactly with the warnings in the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, which predicted a long-term decline in cool-season rainfall across southern Australia.
This projected long-term shift in rainfall is driven by global disruption in the circulation of warm and cool air.
Why Is Victoria Getting Less Rain?
Victoria is experiencing a significant decline in rainfall, particularly during the cooler months of April to October. This trend has been observed over the past several decades and is projected to continue.
Observed Rainfall Decline
Victoria’s cool season rainfall has already decreased by approximately 13%, which is part of a broader pattern of decreasing rainfall in southern Australia.
The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) supports this, noting with high confidence that southern Australia is projected to experience reductions in average rainfall, particularly in the cool season, as the climate warms.
Specific Factors Contributing to Reduced Rainfall
The decline in rainfall is attributed to several interrelated factors:
One of the primary reasons for reduced rainfall is the increased frequency and persistence of high-pressure systems over southern Australia. These systems push rain-bearing cold fronts further south, away from Victoria, resulting in fewer rain events during the cool season.
These shifts are a consequence of mining and burning coal, oil and gas. These fossil fuels pump out heat-trapping carbon dioxide and methane, which build up in our atmosphere and increase average global temperatures. This increase in temperature alters the way air masses and storm tracks move around the globe.
Every new coal, oil and gas project that is approved will make these problems worse.
Floods on one end, drought on the other. Is this Australia's climate future?
Drought and Agricultural Impact
This trend of declining rainfall is having a cascading impact across Victorian agriculture.
Farmers are contending with poor pasture growth, falling water allocations, and increased water stress for crops and livestock. Some regions are already reporting signs of early crop failure with reduced yields and rural communities bracing for more economic hardship if conditions persist.
Water storages in key catchments are falling, and the plants, wildlife and ecosystems of the Murray-Darling Basin will face even greater strain.
A Glimpse of the Future?
This drought is a climate warning. It shows that Victoria is already experiencing the consequences of a heating planet, with real impacts on food production, the natural world, and regional livelihoods.
And while short-term weather cycles may eventually bring relief, long-term water security for Victoria depends on acting decisively to shift to clean energy, reduce carbon pollution and adapt land use and water policy.
Did you know?
You might not be hearing about droughts as much as you used to. That’s because Australia no longer issues formal drought declarations. Since 2013, governments have shifted to a needs-based approach, providing support without waiting for an official declaration.
This causes all sorts of issues and without formal declarations, droughts can go unrecognised in the public eye, making it harder for communities to access support, raise awareness, or plan for long-term recovery. Farmers say it also affects mental health and visibility of the crisis.
What you can do
If you’re concerned about worsening droughts, shrinking water supplies, and the future of our farms and communities, join our Action Network.
We’re building local power, pushing for real climate solutions, and making sure our voices are heard from parliament to the paddock.
Sign up today and take action for a fair, climate-safe future >>