Delaying the transmission projects needed to connect new wind, solar and storage to the grid will cost Victorian households, businesses and the state at least $33 billion by 2050, and drive power bills up, new independent analysis finds.
According to analysis by Nexa Advisory, a mere 4 year delay to the VNI West and WRL transmission lines will push up the cost of generating Victoria’s electricity by $33 billion. Cancelling the projects altogether, as proposed by One Nation and the Liberal-National Coalition, will significantly compound this cost.
The cost of delay or cancellation of VNI-West will push up power bills for a typical Victorian household up to $472 over five years. A small business would be slugged an extra $4,719 and a large business $11,797. These costs would be even higher if the projects are cancelled altogether.
Delaying or cancelling the projects would also make Victoria’s electricity system less reliable, resulting in more blackouts and increasingly reliant on extremely expensive gas generation that was only designed as a ‘last resort’ to be used only when really needed.
Backlogs for gas turbine equipment are ballooning in the face of intense global demand, betting on gas-fired generation to fill the gap is a threat to energy security, as well as a guarantee of higher bills. Coupled with the reality of Victoria’s rapidly declining gas reserves, it is clear that turning to gas now would not only be costly, but risky too.
This warning comes as Yallourn Power Station, which supplies around a fifth of Victoria’s electricity, prepares to close in 2028. The ageing power station was hit by unplanned outages for 32 per cent of 2024, its worst rate on record, and Nexa Advisory found it cannot be relied on as a fallback if replacement capacity is delayed.
Meanwhile, Victoria’s clean energy transition is already delivering results. The state’s electricity mix reached 44.6 per cent renewables in 2025, beating its own target, and Victoria continues to record the lowest average wholesale power prices of any state in the country, cheaper than New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
Delaying the transmission projects needed to connect new wind, solar and storage to the grid will cost Victorian households, businesses and the state at least $33 billion by 2050, and drive power bills up, new independent analysis finds.
According to analysis by Nexa Advisory, a mere 4 year delay to the VNI West and WRL transmission lines will push up the cost of generating Victoria’s electricity by $33 billion. Cancelling the projects altogether, as proposed by One Nation and the Liberal-National Coalition, will significantly compound this cost.
The cost of delay or cancellation of VNI-West will push up power bills for a typical Victorian household up to $472 over five years. A small business would be slugged an extra $4,719 and a large business $11,797. These costs would be even higher if the projects are cancelled altogether.
Delaying or cancelling the projects would also make Victoria’s electricity system less reliable, resulting in more blackouts and increasingly reliant on extremely expensive gas generation that was only designed as a ‘last resort’ to be used only when really needed.
Backlogs for gas turbine equipment are ballooning in the face of intense global demand, betting on gas-fired generation to fill the gap is a threat to energy security, as well as a guarantee of higher bills. Coupled with the reality of Victoria’s rapidly declining gas reserves, it is clear that turning to gas now would not only be costly, but risky too.
This warning comes as Yallourn Power Station, which supplies around a fifth of Victoria’s electricity, prepares to close in 2028. The ageing power station was hit by unplanned outages for 32 per cent of 2024, its worst rate on record, and Nexa Advisory found it cannot be relied on as a fallback if replacement capacity is delayed.
Meanwhile, Victoria’s clean energy transition is already delivering results. The state’s electricity mix reached 44.6 per cent renewables in 2025, beating its own target, and Victoria continues to record the lowest average wholesale power prices of any state in the country, cheaper than New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
Environment Victoria CEO, Jono La Nauze said:
“Renewable energy is already half the cost of electricity from coal and gas – and One Nation and the Coalition want to take that saving away. Independent modelling is now telling us what that would cost: at least $33 billion, meaning higher bills for every household and business in the state.
“Victoria already has the cheapest power in the country because of renewable energy. The risk to Victorians is that the next government abandons the projects designed to deliver cheaper, cleaner energy to our homes and businesses, just as they’re starting to pay off.”
“This modelling shows householders will be slugged with a $472 bill increase if projects are delayed, but it gets even worse if One Nation and the Coalition actually follow through on cancelling them. Nexa Advisory is clear that cancellation would compound the problem, driving energy bills higher and risking the stability of the grid. Victorians deserve to know that the real cost of these parties’ policies is catastrophic.”
“One Nation and the Coalition still haven’t answered the basic question: how do you keep prices down when coal closes, if you won’t build the renewable energy and transmission to replace it? Increasing costs on individual projects are a reason to fix delivery and hold delivery bodies accountable, not a reason to abandon Victoria’s plan for affordable, homegrown energy.”
“Betting on gas – when local supplies are nearly gone and amongst a global crunch for gas turbines – is not a credible plan to keep the lights on.”
“Renewable energy is already half the cost of electricity from coal and gas – and One Nation and the Coalition want to take that saving away. Independent modelling is now telling us what that would cost: at least $33 billion, meaning higher bills for every household and business in the state.
“Victoria already has the cheapest power in the country because of renewable energy. The risk to Victorians is that the next government abandons the projects designed to deliver cheaper, cleaner energy to our homes and businesses, just as they’re starting to pay off.”
“This modelling shows householders will be slugged with a $472 bill increase if projects are delayed, but it gets even worse if One Nation and the Coalition actually follow through on cancelling them. Nexa Advisory is clear that cancellation would compound the problem, driving energy bills higher and risking the stability of the grid. Victorians deserve to know that the real cost of these parties’ policies is catastrophic.”
“One Nation and the Coalition still haven’t answered the basic question: how do you keep prices down when coal closes, if you won’t build the renewable energy and transmission to replace it? Increasing costs on individual projects are a reason to fix delivery and hold delivery bodies accountable, not a reason to abandon Victoria’s plan for affordable, homegrown energy.”
“Betting on gas – when local supplies are nearly gone and amongst a global crunch for gas turbines – is not a credible plan to keep the lights on.”
James Norman, Media and Content Manager – 0451291775
j.norman@environmentvictoria.org.au